The present "failure" of the markets, as it has been called by some, is indeed evidenced by the enormous disconnect between the operating costs and profits of the major commodities suppliers and finishers. However, this is not a generic failure of the market system, as it is directly attributable to governmental over-intervention and unsound currency.
As it is, the markets, as well as the flow of money, are distorted NOT by the
malfeasance of “big oil” but by Federal policy.
In particular, the lowering of interest rates, thus triggering the dollar’s
depreciation, combined with the government’s assumption of credit risks, have
undermined the ability of the markets to function rationally and unimpeded.
Thus, I think the more likely explanation for crude pricing is a combination
of a few things:
1) Market expectation of limitation and a misperception of tight supply (as
evidenced and reinforced by journalistic reporting and commentary)
2) The Fed's current policy of inflation evaluation ignores food and
energy...the two most impactful points of price change for the economy.
Therefore, gov’t policy ignores the "tax" of inflation imposed on day-to-day
dollar users (consumers).
Now, as it is, lower interest rates translate into higher asset prices; as
can be seen by the abandonment of the dollar and upward movement of oil and
other commodity prices. In my opinion, this negatively distorts other
markets (particularly commodities and labor) and demands a general shift of
assets toward a different “bubble”.
3) In the face of a depreciating dollar, the exodus from housing and
construction investment, and residual aversion to tech investment, large
investors and institutions are turning toward the basket of commodities.
Currently, this is oil, gold, copper, wheat, etc.
4) The governmental insurance of lenders against the risks that are inherent
to the nature of lending has artificially altered the costs of such
business, and led to an oversupply of credit, i.e., the student loan market.
Thus, otherwise irrational behavior is rationalized by the government's
Policy; by consequence of altering the moral hazards, the costs of secondary
education and housing are therefore driven higher, as there exists too much
“easy” credit and little or no incentive to save.
In a proper market economy, the best made decisions will apportion
resources to their most valuable uses. Market pricing therefore plays a
critical role in that process; by signaling that the relative scarcity of
goods is real or imminent, the urgency of ending waste is made evident.
But, as things are now, the combination of risk limitation and the
aforementioned assumptions, have conspired to unbalance and predicate the
market with falsity.
The Federal government should therefore:
1. Include energy and food prices in its inflation calculations
2. Not lower the interest rate in times of commodity price increases
3. Not insure lenders against the risks that are inherent to the nature of
lending and thus avoid artificially altering the costs of such business.















